Friday, August 7, 2015

INE ponders end of release of provisional unemployment data – publico

                 


                         
                     

                 

 
                         

Following the controversy that followed the downward revision of the May unemployment rate, the National Statistics Institute (INE) has opened the door to the possibility of not publishing provisional data, which since last year-end releases monthly , going to wait for the final figures, which will delay access to these statistics.

                     


                          “The cost [more] a month in the availability of information,” noted the president of INE, Alda Carvalho, having summoned the press to a conference in which it was explained in some detail the methodology behind the statistics and the responsible deflectiu virtually all non-technical issues with reading the mission of the institution passages – phrases like “disseminate official statistical information quality”

<. p> However, Alda Carvalho stressed he heard “several stakeholders “, ie stakeholders in using the institute’s information and claimed that continue to have interest in the provisional data. This includes public and private entities, the responsible did not specify, but said include academic researchers and ministries. The president of the INE also noted that these are users “knowledgeable” of the provisional feature of information.

The chance to go to disclose only final figures had been drawn at the press conference by the director of the statistics service the labor market, Sonia Torres. “What may be at issue is the maturity of this society to have interim information,” he said.

At issue is the political discussion that followed the correction of May numbers, which ultimately point to a decline unemployment had when initially indicated an increase.

The adjustment was made late last month, when the INE released unemployment statistics for the month of June. Similar to what had previously also published the final figures for the previous month. In this review, the largest so far, the May unemployment rate increased from 13.2% (which would be the first rise after three months of decline) to 12.4%, a value below the 12.8% April and it is also equal to the provisional fee presented in June.

Given the statistics, and when to come elections in which employment will be a hot topic, parties rushed to have different interpretations of the labor market. At a press conference scheduled purposely to comment on the figures from INE, the vice president of PSD Antony Costa said the data show that “the country is on track” and can “aspire to look to the future with hope.”

On the other hand, the opposition pointed out the reduction in the number of jobs and recalled the phenomenon of emigration and people considered inactive by INE, but not unemployed, because they are not actively seeking employment. In between, some staff of the institution they felt pinched on their credibility and the works council issued a statement in which it expressed “abhorrence for political use that has been made of the information produced by INE, calling into question the credibility and independence.”

Alda Carvalho admitted at the meeting Friday with reporters that the 0.8 percentage points relative to May review were a surprise, but flatly rejected the possibility of a mistake. “It is true that we were surprised with the last review,” he acknowledged, adding, however, that this “is not unprecedented” and that these corrections also happen to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Commission, which publishes monthly unemployment data .

As I have done before, the INE justified with technical questions the discrepancy between the provisional figure of May and the final. Statistics published every month concerning the quarter focused this month – ie May figures are for the quarter comprising April, May (for which there is already definitive data resulting from surveys) and June (in which values They are calculated by projection). The results of the June survey turned out to be unusually different from that provided by the statistical models of projection.

However, this week, INE reported quarterly statistics of unemployment (April to June), which focus on a different age universe which point to a rate of 11.9%.


                     
 
                     
                 

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