On the basis of such challenge is the revision of the figures for last May by the National Statistics Institute (INE). Initially were 13.2% being revised to 12.4%. It should be noted that monthly data is always provisional, since what really counts is the quarter. So the president of INE, Alda Carvalho ensures that the revision of the unemployment figures of May “was not a mistake,” though he admits he was surprised.
He explained that the figures disclosed by INE, although be described as May, mean that belong to the “mobile quarter,” that is, April, May and June. In late June, the INE reported that the unemployment rate was 13.2%, a figure that included the complete information of April and May, but not the third month. A projection was then made.
This method is followed by INE, with Alda Carvalho stressed that has been extensively tested. That is, the first figures are provisional, and then reviewed when the INE receives the information that was missing. Only after this operation is that the final figures are published.
Regardless of the controversy it has generated, the truth is that these figures reflect the halt of a cycle of destruction of jobs. For 11 consecutive quarters, following the sovereign debt crisis, Portugal impoverished. Saw the deepest recession of the past 70 years. Good to have been a slight increase in employment, 66,000 a year after the crisis has been prolonged by over-recessionary policies. With growth close to 1.5%, the labor market begins to show signs of more vitality. This growth vetoes the Constitutional Court and the ECB’s policies helped, but soon the external accounts showed negative signs, because the said competitive structural reforms have not been implemented.
About the correctness of numbers and entity the coordinates, José Manuel Fernandes presented a paper on “Observer” that deserves our attention, so we quote: “Official figures, they like them or not, are the National Statistics Institute, a public body whose independence and seriousness, no one has called into question (if there was any doubt, it is good to remember, was the Government). What about the numbers we now know, we like them or not, brought good news regarding employment and unemployment in the second quarter of 2015 “. However, he was also saying: “The unemployment figures should not hide the employment. Here you see which sectors where jobs have been lost forever and it turns out as there is, after the crisis, much more licensed employees. “
With regard to the valuation of two parts, unemployment / employment, columnist Observer states: “Politically, the numbers that will be worth more are the unemployment, because it is that always talking. They will be worth at representing the surprise: a year ago, even six months ago, no one – not even the most optimistic of rulers – imagine possible that unemployment had decreased to these numbers, let alone it was possible to end the legislature with better numbers the legacy the previous majority. It is therefore the natural order of things that PSD and CDS have jumped for joy and the PS has been talk of manipulation. “
Despite all the reasons adduced by the parties, we believe that beyond the numbers official INE is necessary “look with eyes to see ‘for unemployment means to people and who reaches in reality. The ‘real’ rate, ie the sum that discouraged and involuntary part-time, remains above 20% and the expected growth will fall only marginally in the coming years are reporting estimates of the first evaluation of the IMF post-program. The IMF staff continue to warn that the picture is bad and will not be substantially better, at least considering the long-term economic growth prospects to take.
Given this reality it is little discussion unemployment downloaded. While it is good news, it would be before requiring this government and / or others who can be elected, which is more heed to people. And that’s what would make all the difference.
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