The end of the European Schengen free-circulation space will cost at least 470 000 million in ten years the EU countries, according to a German study published today.
The reinstallation of border controls in Europe, an increasingly likely scenario due to the refugee crisis, would be reflected in “massive increases in costs and prices” of according to the study of the Prognos Institute, commissioned by the Bertelsmann Foundation.
These costs would have repercussions outside Europe, due to an increase in import prices. The study indicates that the end of Schengen would cost 91 billion euros in ten years the United States and 95 billion to China.
border controls would be reflected by higher personnel costs for companies and also storage costs, because it is not possible to guarantee deliveries last minute, said the institute.
in an optimistic scenario, production costs in the EU increase by 1%, representing a total cost of 470 billion to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the EU in ten years (2016-2025). For Germany, the bill would be 77 billion euros, and France 80 billion.
The EU’s annual GDP is around 15 billion.
In a pessimistic scenario where production costs increased, on average, 3% would have a cost to the EU of 1.4 billion euros, of which 235 000 million for Germany and 244 billion for France.
“If the borders are reinstalled, the already weak growth in Europe will be under greater pressure,” said Aart De Geus, chairman of Bertelsmann Foundation. “Ultimately, it is the citizens who will pay this bill,” he said.
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