In a week in which the outcome of the referendum in the UK has shaken Europe, Mário Centeno received the PUBLIC in the Palace Square where he explained the public accounts and admitted a revision of the forecasts for 2016 in October, when presenting the Budget for 2017. it showed openness to change the proposal of the civil servants retraining scheme and says that a decision on a possible Brussels penalty to Portugal and Spain must be political. About the bank recognizes that the current market turmoil with “Brexit” can complicate the sale of New Bank in exchange.
There is an unavoidable topic this week is “Brexit”. What will mean for our economy? The Government has made some preliminary study on the impacts?
“Brexit” is a change that can be considered as structural in the surrounding of the Portuguese economy, its impact on the European Union (EU) and the direct links and strong that Portugal has with the United Kingdom. The UK is our fourth largest customer in the export of goods, is among the first and second in exports of services, so the obvious answer is that we are aware of it. We have seen, both internally and through all the studies that have been done on the impact of “Brexit” on the Portuguese economy, and the impact is obvious. In what materializes in the short term, this impact? First, what we are observing is any disturbance to the markets or stock markets or in debt. None of this is specific to the Portuguese economy. The impact on the debt is in retreat in some way from the initial impact and think that, in the context of the European Central Bank intervention (ECB), this impact can be contained. In economic terms, it’s a challenge for Portuguese companies and joins other shocks that the economy has suffered, unfortunately, in the external environment, as with Angola, Brazil and, somehow, with the relationship with the China. The truth is that it is with great concern that we observe these developments, but we are also aware that this type of processes leads to adjustments in the economy. I think that Portuguese companies will respond positively to this challenge, but it’s still something we have to deal with.
Do you think there will be impact to the investment level in Portugal, and even domestic demand?
direct and immediate impacts are the short term and these adjustable variables, as market reactions are instantaneous. Then there is certainly an increase in uncertainty, and this is not a good environment for investment. When everything is set, you need to understand what are, for example, the customs tables that will work with the UK, how trade is going to unfold. This is likely to prevent investment British companies in Europe, and vice versa, because from the moment that creates a barrier that must be overcome in some way. There are a multitude of mechanisms that will be unleashed from there, which makes it difficult to identify how far we get.
Do not you think the “Brexit” and its impacts They will oblige the Government to review its economic scenarios?
scenarios for this year and its revision have more to do with the fact that the Government has published scenarios for the economy with a variable that has a lot to do with the “Brexit” and probably It will be new magazine, which is external demand. And there has been a succession of revisions this time, compared to our initial projections, already have a significant dimension.
The Government has reviewed these projections?
If I had to do [projections] every week, every week had to revise. What is the important dimension for the Government? There’s two. The first is that, despite the downward revisions, the projections are for the Portuguese economy continue to point to an acceleration of the economy throughout the year. This is the first important dimension to the State Budget (OE) in terms of revenue. That is, all projections, even the lowest, point to an acceleration of activity. This is the first idea that we need to fix. The second is the composition of economic activity …
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